June 17, 2025 – Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $105,872, but with geopolitical tensions flaring in the Middle East, including China’s evacuation of citizens from Iran and Israel, is this rally sustainable? Let’s break down the charts and market signals for traders and investors.

In-Depth Chart Analysis: BTC/USD (Daily)

• Bollinger Bands (BB): BTC has been riding the upper Bollinger Band since late April, hitting a high of $112,000 on June 10 before pulling back to $105,872. The upper band at $109,872 suggests overextension—historical patterns show BTC often retraces to the 20-day SMA ($102,016) after such moves. A break below the middle band could target the lower band at $96,000, a key support level.
• 20-Day Simple Moving Average (SMA): The 20-day SMA at $102,016 has acted as dynamic support during this uptrend (e.g., early May bounce). It’s a critical level to watch—if BTC dips below this, bearish momentum could accelerate toward $96,000.
• Relative Strength Index (RSI): RSI is at 53.17, down from 70 in early June, indicating cooling momentum. This drop from overbought territory (above 70) suggests a potential consolidation phase. If RSI falls below 50, it could confirm a bearish shift; conversely, a rebound above 60 might signal renewed bullish strength.
• Volume Trends: A recent volume spike on red candles (e.g., June 10-12) shows selling pressure, likely driven by profit-taking or geopolitical uncertainty. Declining volume on the latest green candles hints at weakening buying conviction.

Geopolitical Context: Impact on BTC

China’s evacuation of citizens from Iran and Israel, alongside its ceasefire push, adds uncertainty to global markets. Bitcoin often acts as a safe-haven asset during geopolitical unrest, but a stronger USD (a flight-to-safety move) could cap BTC’s upside. If tensions escalate, expect volatility spikes—potentially pushing BTC toward $96,000 if bearish pressure mounts.

Today’s Outlook for BTC

BTC faces a pivotal moment. A break below $102,016 (20-day SMA) could trigger a deeper correction to $96,000, while a push above $108,000 might retest the recent high of $112,000. RSI and volume trends will be key—watch for a spike in buying volume or an RSI rebound above 60 to confirm bullish momentum.

Key Levels to Monitor

• Support: $102,016 (20-day SMA), $96,000 (lower Bollinger Band).
• Resistance: $108,000, $112,000 (recent high).
• Trade Idea: Consider a short if BTC breaks below $102,000 with high volume, targeting $96,000. For longs, wait for a confirmed bounce above $108,000.

Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency trading carries significant risk due to market volatility. Always conduct your own research and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.