HDFC Bank Ltd., India’s premier private sector lender, is consolidating within a symmetrical triangle pattern on the daily chart. As of July 11, 2025, the stock closed at ₹1,988.80, down by ₹17.40 (-0.87%). This price action is occurring just days ahead of its Q1FY26 earnings announcement, scheduled for July 18, 2025.
With the stock trading at the apex of a triangle and Bollinger Bands narrowing, a decisive move seems imminent. This article explores the technical setup, potential breakout targets, key support/resistance zones, and pre-earnings trading strategy.
📊 Stock Snapshot
| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Close Price | ₹1,988.80 |
| Day Range | ₹1,987.40 – ₹2,004.80 |
| Change | -₹17.40 (-0.87%) |
| Volume | ~1.66M |
| 20-Day SMA | ₹1,979.81 |
| Bollinger Bands | Upper: ₹2,038.34 Lower: ₹1,921.27 |
| Upcoming Earnings | July 18, 2025 |
| EPS Estimate | ₹22.723 |
| Revenue Estimate | ₹432.34 Billion |
📐 Chart Pattern Analysis
🔷 Symmetrical Triangle Formation
- Price action since mid-June shows the formation of a symmetrical triangle — characterized by converging trendlines of lower highs and higher lows.
- This pattern represents a consolidation phase and usually precedes a strong breakout in either direction.
🔵 Key Support from 20-SMA
- The 20-day SMA (₹1,979.81) has provided reliable support on dips over the past two weeks.
- Price is currently testing the triangle’s lower trendline, near the SMA — a critical juncture for decision-making.
🔴 Decreasing Volume
- A consistent decline in volume is noted during the triangle consolidation.
- This is typical behavior ahead of breakout phases — watch for a volume surge on breakout day.
🔍 Support and Resistance Levels
| Level Type | Price (₹) | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| Immediate Resistance | ₹2,005 – ₹2,038 | Triangle breakout zone + upper Bollinger Band |
| Immediate Support | ₹1,980 | Triangle base and 20-SMA |
| Key Demand Zone | ₹1,957 | Flat base of previous breakout |
| Major Support | ₹1,906 – ₹1,921 | Bollinger lower band & May consolidation zone |
🔮 What to Expect Next?
✅ Bullish Breakout Scenario:
- Breakout above ₹2,005 with volume could trigger a strong upmove.
- Short-term targets:
- ₹2,050 – near previous swing high
- ₹2,100 – psychological round number
- The breakout would signal resumption of medium-term uptrend, especially if earnings surprise on the upside.
⚠️ Bearish Breakdown Scenario:
- Break below ₹1,980 may drag the stock to test:
- ₹1,957 – minor horizontal support
- ₹1,921 – Bollinger lower band
- ₹1,906 – strong demand zone
- A breakdown before earnings may indicate profit booking or low investor expectations.
📈 Indicator-Based Analysis
🔹 Bollinger Bands:
- Bands are contracting, indicating reduced volatility and a potential volatility expansion soon.
- Price action nearing band squeeze — classic setup before breakout.
🔹 Volume:
- Volume has declined steadily during the consolidation phase.
- Breakout with high volume (above 3M) will confirm directional strength.
🔹 RSI:
- RSI is hovering in neutral territory (around 50–55).
- A sharp move above 60 post-breakout would confirm bullish momentum.
🧠 Strategic Trading Setup
🟢 For Positional Traders:
- Buy on breakout above ₹2,005 with SL below ₹1,980.
- Target 1: ₹2,050 | Target 2: ₹2,100+
🔴 For Short Sellers:
- Short below ₹1,980 with SL above ₹2,005.
- Target 1: ₹1,957 | Target 2: ₹1,921 | Target 3: ₹1,906
🟣 For Option Traders:
- Straddle or Strangle strategy can work well due to upcoming breakout and earnings event.
- Suggestion: Buy 1980 PE & 2020 CE (Weekly Expiry) before earnings.
- High IV (implied volatility) expected closer to July 18.
🏦 Upcoming Earnings Preview (July 18, 2025)
- EPS Estimate: ₹22.723
- Revenue Estimate: ₹432.34 Billion
- Focus will be on:
- Net Interest Margin (NIM)
- Loan growth vs. cost of funds
- Asset quality metrics (NPAs)
- Commentary on credit card, housing, and rural lending performance
A beat on earnings may act as a catalyst for triangle breakout.
🗣️ Expert Quote
“HDFC Bank’s triangle setup ahead of earnings is a textbook consolidation pattern. A breakout above ₹2,005 could lead to a 3–5% short-term move, especially if earnings surprise the market,”
— Rajesh Mehta, Chartist, EquityMaster India
🔗 Internal Links
⚠️ Disclaimer
This article is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a stock recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
🧾 Conclusion
HDFC Bank Ltd. is trading at a crucial technical point, with the price coiling inside a symmetrical triangle. The upcoming Q1FY26 earnings on July 18 may act as the trigger for the next big move. Traders should closely monitor ₹2,005 and ₹1,980 levels, and prepare for volatility in the coming sessions.
