🕒 Intraday Chart Overview (1-Hour Chart)
As of the latest hourly candlestick on TradingView, Bitcoin is trading at $107,517, showing a modest recovery of +0.09% for the session. The hourly chart reveals a significant bullish move post a consolidation phase, now facing resistance near $108,232 (Upper Bollinger Band).
Key Observations:
- Bollinger Bands (20 SMA Close 2): The price has just touched the upper band at $108,232 and pulled back slightly, indicating overbought conditions in the intraday range.
- Moving Averages:
- The 20-period SMA sits at $106,526, acting as dynamic support.
- The short-term breakout above the diagonal trendline (~$107,500) may lead to a retest and confirmation of support.
- Volume Spike: A strong green volume candle earlier today indicates active buying interest during the bounce from sub-$105,000 levels.
- Support/Resistance Levels:
- Support: $106,500 (20-SMA) / $104,821 (Lower BB)
- Resistance: $108,232 (Upper BB) / $108,800 (Trendline zone)
Intraday View: Neutral-to-bullish bias. A clean break and hold above $108,232 could open the door to $108,800+. If rejected, price may retrace to the 20-SMA support.
📆 Short-Term View (Next 3–10 Days)
Bitcoin has recently bounced from a local bottom near $104,000, confirming a bullish reversal on the hourly and 4H charts. The current structure suggests a potential higher low, pointing to momentum building.
Key Technical Drivers:
- Trendline Breakout: The diagonal resistance line appears broken intraday. Confirmation on the 4H chart with increased volume could validate a short-term uptrend.
- MACD (not shown): Likely approaching a crossover if momentum continues.
- Price Action: Series of higher highs and higher lows forming, which is a bullish signal.
Short-Term Targets:
- Upside: $108,800 → $110,000
- Downside (if breakdown occurs): $106,200 → $104,500
Short-Term View: Bullish bias unless price dips back below $106,500 with volume.
📅 Long-Term Outlook (1–6 Months)
While the hourly chart offers short-term cues, long-term bullishness depends on macro factors including ETF inflows, halving effects, and macroeconomic data (CPI, Fed rates).
Key Considerations:
- Macro Support: Long-term trendlines from 2023 lows remain intact above $98,000.
- On-Chain Metrics (external): Increasing accumulation by whales and decreasing exchange reserves support bullish long-term structure.
- Cycle Theory: Historically, Bitcoin rallies strongly post-halving. With the 2024 halving already behind us, the next six months are likely to remain bullish.
- Institutional Interest: ETF inflows and global adoption trends act as long-term tailwinds.
Long-Term Targets:
- Bull Case: $120,000 – $135,000
- Bear Case: Breakdown below $100,000 could challenge $85,000–$90,000 zone.
Long-Term View: Bullish, provided macroeconomic stability and continued institutional interest.
⚠️ Risk Factors to Monitor
- Regulatory pressures in the U.S. or EU
- Global risk-off events (rate hikes, war, recession)
- ETF-related FUD or whale distribution phases
- Technical rejection from key resistance zones ($110K+)
✅ Summary
| View | Trend | Support Levels | Resistance Levels | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intraday | Recovering | $106,526 / $104,821 | $108,232 / $108,800 | Neutral–Bullish |
| Short-Term | Reversal Zone | $106,200 / $104,500 | $110,000 / $112,500 | Bullish |
| Long-Term | Strong Macro | $98,000 / $90,000 | $120,000 / $135,000 | Bullish |
📢 Disclaimer:
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile, and investors are advised to conduct their own research or consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author and publisher are not responsible for any financial losses incurred.
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