June 28, 2025 | Weekly Outlook
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closed strong on Friday at 43,819.27, marking a +1.00% gain for the day and showing a decisive breakout above its recent consolidation range. The index surged past a key horizontal resistance level (~43,500), signaling bullish momentum going into the final days of June and start of July.
🔍 Chart Analysis Overview (1D TF)
- Breakout Confirmation: The chart displays a rectangle consolidation pattern formed over the past month, with resistance around 43,500 and support near 42,000. The index has now closed well above the resistance, confirming a bullish breakout.
- Bollinger Bands Expansion: Price is trading above the midline (20 SMA), and the upper band has started to expand. This often signals a strong momentum move in progress. Volatility could rise.
- Next Resistance: The next major target stands at 45,076.99, a level last seen during the early stages of 2025. This could act as a psychological and technical barrier.
- Key Support: In case of a pullback, look for 43,000–43,500 as first support. A failure to hold these levels might drag the index back to 42,000, which served as a strong base throughout June.
🗓️ Dow Jones Outlook: Week of July 1–5, 2025
Bullish Case:
- Momentum from this breakout could fuel a short-term rally toward 45,000.
- Positive sentiment in the US economy and tech sector leadership are providing tailwinds.
- If volume continues to rise, bulls could stay in charge next week.
Bearish Case:
- Overbought signals may start flashing early next week, especially if price nears 45,000 quickly.
- A fake breakout scenario may play out if DJIA closes below 43,500 again, which would invalidate the current bullish structure.
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⚠️ Disclaimer:
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Stock markets carry risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Please consult your financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
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